How network theory predicts the value of Bitcoin

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But is this a bubble? Are the gains real? And are the bitcoin whales in for a sad Christmas? First we must understand what drives bitcoin price and, in particular, this boom. The common understanding for current growth leads us back to institutional investors preparing for the forthcoming BTC futures exchanges. The primary theory about the astonishing rally being put forward by investors on social media is that bitcoin will soon benefit from big institutional money injections via the introduction of the first BTC futures products.

This ability makes bitcoin far more palatable to big investors who are currently bitcoin price analysis vs cost the market to make profits if and when the bitcoin price falls. This group of enthusiasts bought and held bitcoin and will not sell it at any current price. More and more bitcoin fans are entering into this group and they are driving up demand increases. We see a common thread between these points: All cryptocurrency movements are based on domain specific media and conversations between traders.

Bitcoin traders, it can be said, are now akin to the jolly colonists selling stocks under buttonwood tree. That is all coming and at that point the market will harden itself against panics and booms.

Until then we enjoy rises and dips and volatility that puts most bitcoin dilettantes off their lunch. Ultimately new and old users are testing bitcoin price analysis vs cost limits bitcoin price analysis vs cost a system that, for a decade, has been untested. The futures market will be a big driver in growth and bust over the next few months as institutional investors begin using the currency. Yes, to those who are betting big on BTC. Again, I cannot tell you whether to buy or sell but the common expectation is that bitcoin raises to a set point and then fluctuates between a high and a low until the next run up.

Many expect foul play. Now that Bitcoin futures are available it is easy to buy into futures market first and then create a massive number of buys or sells of Bitcoin to ensure the price swings in favour of your futures contract. Is bitcoin price analysis vs cost a bubble? Many are disappointed in the moves, believing the rise is happening because of market manipulation. But we must remember that the real value of a cryptocurrency is not driven by price but instead is driven by utility.

While bitcoin may always bitcoin price analysis vs cost the proverbial hidden pot of gold for early buyers the future of all cryptocurrencies is still being written. Just as, inno one could have predicted the prevalence and value of open source projects like Linux and Apache, no one can currently predict what bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will do for us in the future.

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To continue reading this article, please exit incognito mode or log in. Visitors are allowed 3 free articles per month without a subscription , and private browsing prevents us from counting how many stories you've read. We hope you understand, and consider subscribing for unlimited online access. Some have said that its worth lies in a high cost of production. Others see it as simply a form of credit that allows the transfer of resources, which is why it can take the form of pieces of paper or even digital records.

Then there is the idea that a currency is worth whatever somebody is willing to pay for it given the limited supply. All these approaches run into trouble of one form or another. But their value has little relation to this cost. Today we get an answer of sorts, thanks to the work of Spencer Wheatley at ETH Zurich in Switzerland and a few colleagues, who say the key measure of value for cryptocurrencies is the network of people who use them.

The value of a network is famously accredited to Bob Metcalfe, the inventor of Ethernet and founder of the computer networking company 3Com. In other words, it assumes that all nodes can connect with each other.

It also reveals when Bitcoin has been overvalued. Wheatley and co point to four occasions when Bitcoin has become overvalued and then crashed; in other words, when the bubble has burst. These events have been well documented. The first big crash occurred in when Mt. A crash in was preceded by the discovery of a Ponzi fraud involving Bitcoin. Another crash occurred in when high trading volumes overwhelmed Mt. Gox, causing it to collapse; the value of Bitcoin then dropped by 50 percent in two days.

The most recent collapse, at the end of , occurred after South Korean regulators threatened to shut down cryptocurrency exchanges. Sornette has long suggested that it is possible to predict the collapse of speculative bubbles using certain characteristics of the markets.

Indeed, readers of this blog will be familiar with his ideas. First, he looks for markets that are growing at a super-exponential rate—in other words, markets where the growth rate itself is growing. That can happen for short periods of time because of factors such as herding behavior.

But it is not sustainable without an infinite number of people. For this reason, a crash, or correction, is inevitable. This much is uncontroversial. But Sornette goes on to say that the timing of the crash is predictable. And this makes the market increasingly unstable, to the point that almost any small disturbance can trigger a crash. So in the Bitcoin crashes listed above, the triggering events are insignificant.

The situation is analogous to a forest fire. If the forest is dry enough to burn, almost any spark can trigger a blaze. And the size of the resulting fire is unrelated to the size of the spark that started it.

Instead, it is the network of connections between the trees that allows the fire to spread. Clearly, a prediction that Bitcoin is about to crash in the next few hours or days is much more powerful than a prediction that it will crash in the coming months or years. They put it, rather confusingly, like this: And that means there is uncertain weather ahead, at best. That sends a not-altogether-unexpected message to Bitcoin miners, speculators, investors, and potential regulators: Are Bitcoin Bubbles Predictable?

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