What If Satoshi Nakamoto Sold All His Bitcoin Today?

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It seems like every Tom, Dick and Harry feels obliged to weigh in about the manic action of the their favourite virtual currency, yet I am curious how many of these crack pundits vision man bitcoin stocks ever even transacted in bitcoin. This is the story of my great bitcoin bungle, a tale painful to repeat, but should really be put to paper, so I can forever remember, what a knob I am…. It comes from a story about a man who joined a friend down at the docks.

They were working in a fish market. All day long the price would change dramatically, the action was fast and furious. Buying and selling, vision man bitcoin stocks, buying, etc. Making and losing large sums of money. There was a great speculation, and the price of fish rose to levels that did not justify fundamentals.

Eventually, the market collapsed, and our new trader found himself long way too many cans vision man bitcoin stocks sardines. The man was hungry so he opened one of the fish containers he had been trading and took a bite. Back to vision man bitcoin stocks bitcoin story. What is important, is that it was well before most anyone on Wall Street had ever heard of bitcoin. How do you stop from being ripped off? So you basically have a ledger in the sky, that is vision man bitcoin stocks by no one.

Yet we are going to use this as currency? No one controls it, so no one can screw with it. We should really buy some. At this point, I shook my head in disbelief. In my opinion, about cents too high. Vision man bitcoin stocks the years I have gotten a lot of things wrong in my life, but my bitcoin call takes the cake.

I really think this technology is catching on. We should have a look at it. People will wise up and realize they are buying nothing but bits in the cloud, and that fad will be over before you know it. In the next few months, the price of bitcoin started to accelerate. Granted, much of it was for clandestine illegal goods or services, but hey, the great alcoholic beverage conglomerates of today started out as bootleggers.

I had seen enough bubbles in my day to know that fundamental value means jackshit. So I asked the kid to teach me all about bitcoins. I created a wallet. I bought some bitcoins.

We transferred them between ourselves. I learned what it was like to actually use this technology. And I hated it. The transactions took forever to commit to the blockchain. The process was confusing. You needed a computer science degree to actually use bitcoins. It did little to convince me that this was anything more than a fad. We started with some simple mining using an extra computer we had laying around the office. The kid quickly became somewhat of a bitcoin expert, and convinced us to buy these specialized computers from butterfly labs that were much more efficient at mining bitcoins.

We spent a bit of bread, ordered a couple of these computers, and plugged them in. In the meantime, the price of bitcoin was exploding higher. Next thing we knew, the value of our mining was rising so quickly, the computers were paying themselves off in a matter of a couple of weeks.

Then bitcoin became vision man bitcoin stocks little more mainstream. Suddenly, the Wall Street guys were coming for it, and the price started gapping higher. What had started out vision man bitcoin stocks a vision man bitcoin stocks of a joke vision man bitcoin stocks suddenly turned into a real business. And here is where the story gets more interesting. Not content to simply mine bitcoins, we started trading them. You can mine all the bitcoins you want, but eventually, to lock in your profit, you need to sell them.

For people in the financial industry, we take it for granted that when you execute a transaction, you will get your money. Send in the stock certificate to your broker, execute the sale on the exchange, collect your money. Vision man bitcoin stocks government regulation makes sure that process flows smoothly. Back then, bitcoin exchanges were like the wild west. It was like depositing money in a freshly opened Montana bank in the early 19th century.

Yeah, it might be perfectly legit, but the recourse if one of these banks might fail was limited. We had noticed vision man bitcoin stocks amongst all the exchanges, there were a couple of persistent arbitrage opportunities. Gox, a Japanese exchange, in particular seemed to consistently bid bitcoins at prices that were above the offers at other exchanges eventually Mt.

Gox would go bankrupt and bitcoin traders would lose almost everything. But how would we know which exchanges were legit? So we went about testing them. We transferred small bitcoin positions, made a trade, then requested the money.

We timed how long it took to get our cheque or wire. The longer the delay, the less likely we were to trade with that exchange. Once we had figured out which exchanges were somewhat trustworthy, we went about creating automated vision man bitcoin stocks to arbitrage between the two exchanges. In bitcoin, there are no rules, so there were not only locked markets, but often straight vision man bitcoin stocks where you could buy on one exchange and immediately sell it on another exchange, locking in a profit.

We had bought so many computers that our office became so hot, we were forced to move them to an cold, Canadian un-heated garage. When the price spiked, and then sold off, I figured the mania was over. Not only that, but the media attraction to bitcoin had made mining and arbitrage much more difficult. We sold the last of our XBT, and retired our mining computers. Sure, bitcoin got quiet and drifted lower. Yet, then Xi came into power with anti-corruption regulatory drive. The Chinese government clamped down on capital vision man bitcoin stocks, and gave bitcoin a second life I never expected.

Since the end ofthe vision man bitcoin stocks of bitcoin has gone parabolic. A lot has changed since our early days of bitcoin mining and trading. It has become much more professional. It vision man bitcoin stocks no longer simply a currency to buy illegal goods on Silk Road, but a real alternative to fiat government currencies.

Yet I feel my experience gives me a better filter in which to judge the recent bitcoin mania. I am not some bitter old man yelling at the kids to get off my lawn. When it comes to bitcoin, I can objectively say I have used it, and understand the pluses and minuses of the new technology. But make no mistake, I have not changed my view. I am still a big bitcoin bear.

And let vision man bitcoin stocks walk you through my reasoning. Although I understand the supply of bitcoins is finite, the supply of virtual currencies is infinite. There is nothing stopping another virtual currency from coming along and supplanting bitcoin as the vision man bitcoin stocks currency. He highlighted the fact that Ethereum could be a better system, and might eclipse bitcoin.

Today it is Ethereum, tomorrow it could be another new virtual currency. The supply of bits in the sky is infinite. I understand the network affect, but do you really want to own something that is reliant on it maintaining popularity? Even if you are the biggest virtual currency bull in the world, you might get vision man bitcoin stocks macro picture correct, but miss the micro decision by picking the incorrect eventual winner.

How many technologies have seen the original incumbent eventually go bankrupt, while another company ends up dominating the industry? Is anyone using their Rio MP3 player anymore?

Yet they were way ahead of Apple. As it is currently implemented, it can handle a theoretical maximum of about 7 transactions per second. The energy required for these transactions is also staggeringly high. It has been estimated that a single bitcoin transaction takes at least a thousand times more energy than a VISA transaction.

But many of these individuals using bitcoin are doing so through exchanges. These transactions are by no means anonymous. To think governments are not going to get involved in regulating these exchanges is naive. At vision man bitcoin stocks end of the day, the internet is run by corporations that answer to governments. But what if governments outlaw bitcoin exchanges? Or at least heavily regulate them?

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Remember when the Internet was supposed to democratize everything? The Internet is not free , and is in fact expensive to build, run, and maintain. Moving publications online introduces fixed costs that are harder to manage than the variable costs of print.

And online commerce is just as susceptible to power laws as ever, perhaps even moreso. In the land of open access OA , which harks from the days of idealistic splendor, we now see the big commercial publishers benefiting the most , a fact which was confirmed recently when Cambridge released data on its APCs, and the winner yet again was Elsevier. The Internet may have brought us forward in the world of physics, but while it is faster and has greater capacity, both its speed and capacity remain finite.

Finite things are not endlessly abundant, and the resulting scarcity is something a few clever folk have found interesting new ways to exploit. The first instance concerns Bitcoin, a peer-to-peer cryptocurrency that relies on cryptography algorithms to control its creation and transfer. If you have more and faster processors, you can mine more Bitcoins.

Entire data centers have been taken over or built to mine Bitcoins. The scarcity users of this cryptocurrency have to overcome is scarce processing speed and capacity. Light travels at , miles per second, or miles every millisecond. If the Chicago exchange is miles from Newark, it takes about 5 milliseconds for a signal to move between the two locations — in a vacuum.

But through imperfect fiber optic cables, it takes more like 20 milliseconds. Unless, of course, you have an optimized line, where the time can shrink by milliseconds. With this speed advantage, a flash trader can offer a few shares, detect when a big firm is hunting for shares, and move the market in the few milliseconds gained.

After all, a computer can execute or more trades in a millisecond. Having grabbed the shares at a lower price, the flash trader sells them at a higher price almost immediately, making millions off these small margins over the course of a year.

This sort of performance is possible only if you have a huge informational advantage. Entire black pool exchanges exist in New Jersey and now Chicago in order to create a stock exchange hidden within the stock exchange, their speed advantages imposing a transaction tax on nearly everyone buying stocks today.

As Mark Cuban describes flash trading or high-frequency trading, it is:. In both cases — Bitcoin and flash trading — we are seeing the tyranny of superior technology that differentiates on scarcity. Have more computers in a Bitcoin economy? You can run the cryptographic algorithms faster, and you get rich. You can tax every other trader in the market without their knowledge and become rich. Besides exploiting technical scarcity, another thing both Bitcoin miners and flash traders have in common is that they are already, by almost any standard, rich.

These are just schemes to use technology to baffle other people while they attempt to get richer. So, instead of technology being a democratizing and leveling social good, it is being turned into a tool to exploit, deceive, and defraud. The Matthew Effect — the rich get richer — strikes again. Michael Lewis states bluntly that flash trading or high-frequency trading has created a stock market in which flash traders are predators, luring normal investors — the prey — into hidden traps.

Luckily, one of the people who first figured out the scam has started a stock exchange that defeats the predators — IEX. Michael Lewis and the heroes of his story figured out another important technology game going on. Technology is not innately good. It can be misused. It can be used to exploit, constrain, pry, and fool. The answer is not in technology. It is in culture, law, and shared expectations of fair play.

Opinions on social media or blogs are his own. I must disagree with your analysis of Bitcoin on a few points. There is no central authority to fractionally reserve anything with Bitcoin and it was designed from the ground up to prevent that from happening.

That is the whole point of bitcoin, to avoid central control. Mining is NOT a winning proposition either for most regular folk. I know, I mine. No one without tens of thousands to spend will become rich either. In fact, from what I have seen, it is doubtful mining is profitable in the long run at all — no matter what anyone spends on it. Also, Bitcoin may not survive. If the market finds a better alternative the game is up. Plus, the data centers you speak of were not taken over. They were built from the ground up from nothing.

The people who built them put extreme amounts of capital down, up front with no guarantee of ever getting it back. They have no control over weather Bitcoin is adopted or not by the general public as a currency. Again, where is the control? The odds of that happening are greater than winning the lottery — not too good! In fact the major debates right now are between the venture capital types and the anarchists over regulations and taxes. My guess is there will be compromise that the anarchists are very unhappy with, but the demand for an alternative to the very banking system you propose these anarchists will pine for is so great that the anarchists are going to get pushed aside by free market demand.

Whatever the outcome, the concept is loose. The genie is out of the bottle and nature abhors a vacuum. This new form of money transfer is here to stay, like it or not. I think that it is important to note that this kind of scarcity is artificial. Like the cartel that makes diamonds scarcer than they actually are, it requires at least the tacit acquiescence of those who could easily unplug any and all artificial scarcity machines by changing law, policy, etc.

Interesting article, but your point could be defined better in my opinion. Unlike stocks, digital currencies are more readily used in transactions. It, like Bitpay, processes digital currency payments like bitcoin, litecoin, dogecoin etc. Not only that, digital currencies are the only current way to make a payment around the world almost instantly. Those methods are highly regulated, with fees, and a lot of times not even possible. HFTs have their own issues as well and operate on their own playing field in the shadows.

They absolutely have an advantage over everyone else as they are algorithms that have near real-time access to market information and can react in milliseconds, unlike your average internet trader. To your last point, technology is a tool. Like other tools, they are not innately good or evil, it depends on how it is used.

JD Hancock Remember when the Internet was supposed to democratize everything? As Mark Cuban describes flash trading or high-frequency trading, it is: View All Posts by Kent Anderson. Technology, Law, and Education: