Bitcoin's price bubble will burst under government pressure
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The most epochal financial transaction of this century, to date, occurred on May 22, It did not feature collateralized debt obligations, or credit default swaps. But the most remarkable thing about that transaction was the decision by the provider of the pizza, year-old Jeremy Sturdivant, that the compensation he received—10, units of a newly birthed currency, one called into being from the ether of the Internet, and backed by no bank or nation—was worth real bread and cheese.
Those pepperoni pizzas were the first real-world bitcoin transaction. It has become de rigueur over the last year to speak approvingly of blockchains, the technology on which Bitcoin is built, and dismissively of Bitcoin itself.
One gets the distinct sense that everyone would feel better if it would just go away. To software engineers like me, this all seems very strange and surreal. A blockchain is just a data structure. A fascinating why the exchange rate and public opinion of bitcoin doesnt matter powerful one, granted, but not revolutionary in and of itself.
Allow me to suggest a heretical thought, a violation of the new conventional wisdom. What if Bitcoin is more important than the blockchain? What if decentralized, permissionless Bitcoin is to financial-services blockchains almost exactly what the Internet was to corporate intranets twenty years ago? Why is bitcoin valuable? For the same reason that gold is valuable. Why is gold valuable? If we valued gold only for its shine, malleability, and conductivity, it would be worth much less.
What has made gold so valuable over so many centuries is that it is good at being valuable, something which, it turns out, is extraordinarily difficult. Gold is hard to counterfeit; easy to refine, merge, subdivide, and transport; and exceedingly scarce.
All the gold ever mined would not fill four Olympic-sized swimming pools. It is these attributes, and only these attributes, which make gold an effective medium of exchangeunit of accountand store of value … or, more succinctly, money. Cypherpunk alchemists have quested for the digital equivalent of gold for decades. Now that it has been discovered, we expect ordinary people to understand its significance.
This is a mistake. The only reason for an ordinary person to use bitcoin in their day-to-day life is if they have been betrayed by their nation and its currency. Because every so often, even ordinary people catch a glimpse of the rusting, sputtering, 20th-century machinery beneath the sleek facade of the global financial system, and Bitcoin is poised to do to that system what the Internet did to long-distance telephone calls.
The steampunk inadequacy of that system is most apparent when we travel. Have you ever had to transfer money internationally, and been whacked with both a sizable fee and a terrible exchange rate? Have you ever tried to understand why such transfers take many hours or even several days, when ATMs function instantaneously?
Have you ever encountered people who cannot use their debit cards outside of their own nation? Have you ever been to a country where the overwhelming majority of the population is unbanked?
Have you ever had to change money on the black market? Have you ever left a country and found yourself with a fistful of currency that was why the exchange rate and public opinion of bitcoin doesnt matter worthless, unexchangeable, once you left its border behind?
Have you ever had to deal with export controls, or hyperinflation? Both China and India impose currency why the exchange rate and public opinion of bitcoin doesnt matter. Do you know what essentially immunizes why the exchange rate and public opinion of bitcoin doesnt matter from all of the above?
Perhaps the financial industry will, in its infinite wisdombuild a blockchain killer app. I am interested in genuinely transformative initiatives such as Ethereumbut that is far more than just a blockchain. Nor am I interested in applications which expect ordinary people to use bitcoin. What I am interested in are applications which seek to use Bitcoin to supplant our sclerotic, duct-taped global financial plumbing.
Align Commercefunded by Kleiner Perkins. Blockstreama company devoted to broadening the bounds of all things bitcoin, and the first iteration of their fascinating sidechains initiative.
Look to startups like these. Blockchain Buzzword Bingo It has become de rigueur over the last year to speak approvingly of blockchains, the technology on which Bitcoin is built, and dismissively of Bitcoin itself. The Bitcoin Mistake Why is bitcoin valuable? Please note that Bitcoin meets all of these criteria, too, in spades. Unglobalized The steampunk inadequacy of that system is most apparent when we travel.
Killer Apps Perhaps the financial industry will, in its infinite wisdombuild a blockchain killer app.
