Other stop-off points on the way were Natwest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis. Raoul retired from managing client money in at the age of 36 and now lives on the Valencian coast of Spain, from where he writes for The Global Macro Investor. His is also the co-founder of Real Vision TV. Raoul started his career by running equity and equity derivatives at Goldman Sachs. Through this, he learned the macro investing world.
He then joined a hedge fund, managing its global macro raoul pal bitcoin stock price before retiring at 36 on the coast of Spain.
But it was then that Raoul decided to start a research service, the Global Macro Investor, aimed at large, institutional players. However, inRaoul realized the ordinary investor had been let down by the system and financial media. Real Vision features the smartest guys in the world teaching you how to invest, what their best ideas are, and so on….
After this background, the raoul pal bitcoin stock price jump in, with Meb asking Raoul about his overall investing framework.
Raoul tells us this whole game is about probabilities. To invest successfully, we look for times when the odds are in our favor. So, to look for these times, Raoul developed a system based on the business cycle — with a focus on GDP, as asset prices are moved by economic growth. He says how last year, it appeared that ISM levels were rolling over, but then they steadied and now are a bit high. He asks Raoul what it means for us now. Raoul tell us that this is the raoul pal bitcoin stock price speculation in oil — ever.
Way too many people went long, and this speculative positioning is too far ahead of the actual business cycle. Next, the guys discuss great opportunities around the globe. Raoul points to Cypress. Greek stocks are still hammered too.
He says the upside could be huge — potentially 10x your money. Meb agrees, mentioning his own study about markets that have gone down big, or stayed down for many years. The upside is often spectacular. The conversation then steers toward one the biggest emerging macro raoul pal bitcoin stock price in the world — India. Next up — Bitcoin. Raoul gives us a quick primer on Bitcoin and blockchain technology. He tells us that many people are confused as to what, exactly, it is — currency?
Raoul gives us his thoughts. Wunder Capital and The Idea Farm. To listen to Episode 46 on iTunes, click here. To listen to Episode 46 on Stitcher, click here. To listen to Episode 46 on Google Play, click here. To stream Episode 46, click here. Welcome to the Meb Faber Show, where the focus is on helping you grow and preserve your wealth.
Join raoul pal bitcoin stock price as we discuss the craft of investing and uncover new and profitable ideas, all to help you grow wealthier raoul pal bitcoin stock price wiser. Better investing starts here. Meb Faber is the cofounder and chief investment officer at Cambria Investment Management. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Cambria Investment Management or its affiliates. For more information, visit cambriainvestments.
Support for the Meb Faber Show and the following message come from Wunder Capital, allowing individuals to invest in solar projects. Earn up to 8. Create an account for free at wundercapital. Do well and do good. I am super excited today to have a fellow macro guy on the show. Raoul Pal, welcome to the show. What raoul pal bitcoin stock price you in L.
Not so bad here. We had some sushi and sake, and the next morning I did a sit-down video for Real Vision. My kind of sales side of the career finished when I was running equities and equity derivatives at Goldman Sachs, dealing in four hedge funds. So, I had the big hedge fund team, huge team of us, and I was just lucky enough to get to learn the trade from the greatest people in the history of investing. The obvious happened, is I moved over to the dark side, back in raoul pal bitcoin stock price moved across to a hedge fund, which was GLG Partners.
I ran an internal book there to start with, and then launched and managed the global macro funds. GLG is probably, well it was at the time, the largest hedge fund group in Europe.
So I did that for a few years and had the raoul pal bitcoin stock price of the global macro game, investing. But starting, you know, writing for a few people and before you know it, it resonated and people loved what I did. And I built a business from there, just quietly from Spain, writing away and traveling around the world meeting these incredible investors, advising them on their portfolios and the best trade ideas in the world. And then came raoul pal bitcoin stock price, and I got increasingly awkward with the dichotomy that people like myself knew exactly what was going on and had been predicting that this was gonna happen, but the ordinary guy had been let down, both by financial media and by the banks.
Nobody wants to acknowledge the risks that were there. And people were getting destroyed, whether it was in the housing market, whether it was their savings, or in Spain when the banks started shutting down. So I had this idea that I had a duty to do something about it. So yeah, I parked that for a while and carried on writing and doing my thing. And Real Vision was born a few years later, four of us in a small office in the Cayman Islands. We used to write a handful of raoul pal bitcoin stock price about some of the needs there, on the content raoul pal bitcoin stock price and the frustrations, of course, with going on CNBC for 15 seconds in the octagon.
A Great Dane is different than a poodle or is different than a Beagle and so you have the Rentechs [SP] of the world that are systematic macro, and then you have other guys that are discretionary. Maybe talk a little bit about your framework for how you view the world. And meanwhile, for reporting purposes and risk management purposes, you have to look at this on a monthly basis, it kind of was ludicrous.
And I realized the great investment arbitrage, the biggest source of [inaudible Those two things married together just shift the balance of probabilities in your favor. And this whole game is about probabilities. None of us are right all the time.
So, what I did is I developed, when I was at Goldman, and then through to GLG particularly, I started developing a framework based on the business cycle. But it happens to go up and down perfectly with GDP. But why is it useful is because asset prices are moved by economic growth. Now, this is where people get lost. The year on year change in inflation is driven by that, the year on year change in world trade is driven by that, the year on year change in the KOSPI index in Korea is driven by the same thing.
In fact, almost all asset classes, copper, oil, everything, are driven by the U. So, basically, understand one thing and you can pretty much understand the relative pricing of all assets, and it also allows you to forecast. The forecast ability of the business cycle is based on a simple thing. Look at any chart of GDP over the last years, it goes up and down. So what we know from that is we can get probabilities from that.
So we know, for example, that every economic expansion lasts, on balance, seven to nine years. So we know the probabilities of recession coming raoul pal bitcoin stock price rising. So raoul pal bitcoin stock price kind of thing makes you understand therefore that we should be cautious in stock markets and more positive in bond markets. So, okay, so the ISM kinda ripped back up after the depths of the crisis and was strong for a few years, kind of bounced along a few times, maybe touching 50, and then last year, I believe, inthere was a couple of times when it looked like it might roll over and then really kinda ripped back up.
So, what does that kinda mean right now? So just going back a little bit historically, as you said, the business cycle started weakening badly in So I had been forecasting a recession, looking for that. And the ISM has rebounded strongly as had the year on year change in oil and all sorts of other indices and commodities.
So now it looks very strong. The reality is, is that translation effect comes off all of this data from next month onward. And I think GDP will come back down to kind of 1.
So that sets me up. So, again, we know that the asset prices have followed the business cycle. Raoul pal bitcoin stock price therefore, that should tell us that some of these asset prices are pricing on the wrong thing.
Bond prices, however, bond yields, should significantly raoul pal bitcoin stock price because bond yields are basically just GDP plus inflation.
And part of the thesis, I believe, has to do something with speculative positioning. Maybe you talk a little bit what you mean by that? Oil is also very cyclical. What has happened recently is that the oil price kind raoul pal bitcoin stock price rebounded after the big sell-off [inaudible
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