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Given that the tariffs in question have been imposed under section of the US Trade Expansion Act whereby the national security of the US is supposedly at stake this American failure to treat New Zealand as an ally is historically significant. After all, our troops have fought and died alongside the US in every major global conflict — the two world wars, Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan etc — for the past hundred years or more.

We have also been to the point of self harm a country wedded to free trade and open borders. There are fears of a tit for tat response by China, against US products.

In , China was the third biggest market for US exports. Boeing airplanes, US high-tech componentry and US farm exports eg soybeans, sorghum and pork would probably be first in the firing line of any Chinese response, for both political and economic reasons. Sorghum production for instance, is concentrated in states that voted heavily for Trump in Yet for now, the headlines about an imminent trade war with China may be overly dramatic: Under the terms of the memorandum, Trump will target the Chinese imports only after a consultation period, a measure that will give industry lobbyists and legislators a chance to water down a proposed target list which runs to 1, products.

But US tech companies are also vulnerable to retaliation, especially companies such as Apple and Intel that have manufacturing operations in China. Where did this come from? As Adam Davidson pointed out two years ago in his profile of Navarro, this is not how the world works: This is in contrast to most other market transactions, in which both parties can be made better off by exchanging with each other. For Navarro, the U.

For one thing, China has quite a few other options. As yet, Trump has shown little interest in building such a coalition. As Davidson added, even back in China already trades more with the European Union than it does with the U. A trade war would shatter General Motors, all of Hollywood, the music industry , Boeing, and the entire state of Washington , which exports more goods to China than any other. Navarro and Trump also assume a manufacturing universe that no longer exists.

American manufacturers have shifted away from making lower-cost commodity goods and focus, instead, on more expensive, complex products, like medical devices, automobiles, and airplanes. All of those goods require a steady input of smaller, commodity components like screws and circuit boards that are made in China and other countries. Some companies might react by beginning to manufacture those lower-cost commodity products domestically, but it seems unlikely that many manufacturers would do so.

Indeed, they would see it as an opportunity. Multinational corporations considering leaving China would face an easy choice: Finally, is China the real villain here? More so in the past, surely, than at it is at present. No doubt in the s and early s, cheap imports from China combined with its prior readiness to artificially depress its currency in order to secure trade advantages did destroy US manufacturing jobs, and did depress wages.

Yet as wages and production costs have risen in China that impact has lessened. All along, there have been key domestic drivers at work within the US job market, too. Workers have been displaced by technology and discouraged from getting more education because of the rising cost of public universities. Democratically aligned economists point to weaker unions, a low minimum wage, a lack of infrastructure spending, and a series of congressional and Supreme Court actions that shift bargaining power away from workers and toward corporations.

Many traditional Republicans believe that regulations and taxes prevent investment that could lead to more jobs. There is enormous disagreement about the proper response to global trade.

However, pretty much every economics scholar would observe that the United States is hardly powerless against China and that the fundamental solutions to adjusting to a global economy are domestic ones. We have, within the United States, all the power we need to improve our education system, to help workers transfer to more promising industries, to invest in infrastructure, and to improve worker bargaining power.

Trump has no appetite for those kind of domestic solutions. He seeks foreign villains, and China has played that role usefully for the West since the days of Fu Manchu. China — like Putin — will blame the outsiders. Still, Xi has good reason to want to avoid a trade war, given that the Chinese economy is still dependent on exporting, and far from completing its transition to domestic consumption.

The future is young duh It is also female. These Pew polling figures on political allegiance among millennials are astounding, and highly encouraging. Among millennials, which Pew identifies as people born between and , men lean toward Democrats by 8 percentage points — far and away a bigger tilt toward Democrats than older cohorts of men.

But millennial women favor Democrats by a staggeringly large margin. The graphs that chart the comparisons between the political allegiances of among the different generations millennials, Gen X, boomers, silent generation say it all. In the Silent Generation, women are 8 points more favorable to Democrats. In New Zealand, the same trend among women voters, and the young, was evident before the last election.