Opinion: Speculators Are Corroding Bitcoin

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I have been your opinion about bitcoin since the first exchanges and these patterns always repeat, all the older traders and holders should know this by now.

The good news is that this is a technical update so we even have dates for what will be happening so this is all fairly easy to predict, as I see it. Those bitcoin your opinion about bitcoin guys that are not signatory to the New York if there refuse to implement Segwit2x, should we be expecting a fork or bitcoin split? It will split Bitcoin as far as I know so why should there be the need to split when all of them will grow anyway.

The exchanges such as bitfinex had already splitted them long before it happen. I hate the idea but they're on to it already so we'll see. My Opinion on Bitcoin Segwit2x. Before this date July 21 all the weak hands are basically out, those that do not understand the tech or are afraid because of some random twitter personality, and the like. July 21 — Segwit2x is due to be released and presumably all participants to the New York Agreement will run it.

I suspect much will be priced in by this time as it is not some surprise. July 26 — BIP91 should activate. At this point, all blocks are required to signal for Segwit BIP or they will be orphaned off the network. Once it activates this should be more bullish for BTC. Your opinion about bitcoin this time it might even be somewhat stable as weak hands are out your opinion about bitcoin other people have picked up cheap coins.

August 23 — This is around when we can expect blockwhich is when Segwit should activate. From this block on, Segwit transactions will be legal on the network. Again, opinion, but based on price movements for even the chance of this happening I see no reason why it would not happen when it actually does.

Look at LTC charts around May 10 to compare. BTC after the ATH will stop rising at whatever price it reaches, and then Alts take off again and we should have the biggest rally we have ever seen. Sure, anything is possible, but this is your opinion about bitcoin opinion and prediction.

Take or leave it. Authors get paid when people like you upvote their post. Trending Trending Votes Age Reputation. Nice write up but what is your opinion on Segwit?

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Updated December 14, Bitcoin is a " speculative mania " according to the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. But it's not so easy to say that bitcoin is a bubble — we don't know how to value it. But the bitcoin market is only just maturing as an investment and as a currency, and so it may still have room to grow. A bubble is when the price of an asset diverges from its " fundamentals " — the aspects of an asset that investors use to value it.

These could be the income that can be earned from a stock over time, a company's cash flow, the state of a country's economy, or even the rent from property. But bitcoin does not pay out profits like shares or rent like property , and is not attached a national economy like fiat currencies. This is part of the reason why it is hard to tell what the underlying value of bitcoin is or should be. In the search for fundamentals some have suggested we should look at the supply of bitcoins in the market which is regulated by the technology itself , the number of bitcoin transactions through the market, or even the energy consumed by bitcoin miners the computers that validate transactions and are rewarded with bitcoins.

If we take a close look, we can see how the price of bitcoin may be diverging from these fundamentals. For instance, it is becoming less profitable to be a miner, especially as the energy required increases. At some stage the cost may exceed the price of bitcoin, making the network less worthwhile to both mine and invest. Bitcoin may be the best known cryptocurrency but it is also losing market share to other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum and Litecoin. Bitcoin currently accounts for Many of these other cryptocurrencies have more functionality than bitcoin such as Ethereum's ability to execute smart contracts , or are more efficient and use less energy such as Litecoin.

Government policy , such as taxation or the establishment of national digital currencies, may also make it riskier or less worthwhile to mine, transact or hold the cryptocurrency. China's ban on initial coin offerings earlier this year reduced the value of bitcoin by 20 per cent in 24 hours. Without these fundamentals the price of bitcoin largely reflects speculation. And there is some evidence that people are simply buying and holding bitcoin in the hope it will keep rising in value also known as "greater fool" investing.

Certainly, the cap on the total number 21 million of bitcoins that can exist, makes the currency inherently deflationary — the value of the currency relative to goods and services will keep increasing even without speculation and so there is a disincentive to spend it.

Many big investors — including banks and hedge funds — have not yet entered into the market. The volatility and lack of regulation around bitcoin are two reasons stopping these investors from jumping in. There are new financial products being developed, such as futures contracts , that may reduce the risk of holding bitcoin and allow these institutional investors to get in.

But bitcoin futures contracts — where people can place bets on the future price of stocks or markets — may also work against the price of the cryptocurrency. Just like gamblers place bets on horse races rather than buying a horse, investors may simply buy and sell the futures contracts rather than bitcoin itself some contracts are even settled in cash, rather than bitcoin. Although the rush to invest is apparently encouraging some people to take out mortgages to buy bitcoin, traditional banks won't lend specifically for that purpose as the market is too volatile.

But it's not just on the finance side that the bitcoin market is set to expand. More infrastructure to support bitcoin in the broader economy is rolling out, which should spur demand. Bitcoin ATMs are being installed in many countries, including Australia. Bitcoin lending is emerging on peer-to-peer platforms , and new and more regulated marketplaces are being created. Many companies are accepting bitcoin as payment.

That means that even if the speculation dies down, bitcoin can still be traded for some goods and services. And finally, although the fundamentals of bitcoin are still up for debate, when it comes to transaction volume through the network there appears to be a lot of room for growth. In the end, this is uncharted territory. We don't know how to value bitcoin, or what will happen. Historical examples may or may not apply.

What we do know is that the technology behind most cryptocurrencies is enabling new models of value transfer through secure global consensus networks, and that is causing excitement and nervousness.

Originally published in The Conversation. First posted December 14, If you have inside knowledge of a topic in the news, contact the ABC. ABC teams share the story behind the story and insights into the making of digital, TV and radio content. Read about our editorial guiding principles and the enforceable standard our journalists follow. When Loren's brother disappeared, finding her younger "sidekick" became her priority.

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A digital cryptocurrency It operates on a decentralised peer-to-peer network, with no central authority or government backing They can be bought with fiat currencies like Australian dollars from online exchanges or created through mining. We asked if you thought bitcoin was in a bubble.

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Connect with ABC News. Got a news tip? Editorial Policies Read about our editorial guiding principles and the enforceable standard our journalists follow. When your loved one disappears By Stephanie Boltje When Loren's brother disappeared, finding her younger "sidekick" became her priority.

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