No one in China is under any illusion that the CNY will hold steady. The effects of the most aggressive credit expansion since the GFC are bearing spoiled fruit. The rise in NPLs must be absorbed by the central government via the banking system. Bass notes a rise of the official 1.
Aggressive currency debasement and interest rate cuts are the only policy levers left. As the citizenry realises that jobs will be lost and prices will rise, they will search for anything that holds value and or can be sold abroad to receive a stable currency.
The price of Bitcoin is set in Yuan. The Bitcoin premium has compressed lately. In Q1, expect increased volatility and the beginnings of actual cash from China finding its way into Bitcoin. To date, most of the price action has come from speculators front-running this tidal wave of Yuan.
When cash buyers return to Bitcoin after a 2. Patient traders should begin accumulating positions in longer dated BitMEX futures contracts.
Pressure on China central bank for bigger yuan depreciation: Any serious trader should know the key opening and closing times of these respective markets. The graph above shows this relationship. The two variables track well until this past weekend. The appropriate trade is to go long the Bitcoin premium in China and hedge out the Bitcoin price risk. XBT7D trades at a premium; therefore the trade has positive carry. Thank you to everyone who tuned into Lesson 1 last Friday.
Lesson 2 will slide episode 9 after bitstamp this Wednesday 13 January slide episode 9 after bitstamp China imported raw commodities in size to fuel industrialisation, and then exported the finished knick-knacks to the world. Canada benefited from higher oil prices and expanded production into high cost per barrel regions like the Alberta tar sands.
Australia provided China with raw industrial commodities like iron ore. The wealthy Chinese who wanted to safeguard their newfound riches started buying property in droves in marquee cities like Vancouver and Sydney, which sparked a housing boom. Rising commodity and housing prices made everyone feel like slide episode 9 after bitstamp winner.
Unfortunately the slowdown in Chinese economic activity and falling commodity prices landed a heavy blow to both countries in The eager Chinese property buyers are fading quickly. The enforcement of capital controls and a worsening business climate in China, has cooled investors desire for expensive Canadian and Australian property. Their currencies became a proxy bet on China, and as such received the stick.
Faced with a deteriorating economy, the central banks of Canada and Australia will continue cutting interest rates. The Bank of Canada overnight rate is 0. These policy rates will be zero in to no time if there is no rebound in the Chinese economy and or commodity prices. Citizens who find themselves less wealthy, should look for alternative ways to protect what they have left. When Bitcoin trades at a discount in China, it surely points slide episode 9 after bitstamp an invalidation of my trade thesis of a weakening CNY pushing money into Bitcoin.
However, I counter that nothing changed in terms of monetary policy over the weekend. The CNY is must depreciate vs. And the economic climate slide episode 9 after bitstamp China is not improving, nor are capital controls getting looser. The temporary dislocation in China is an excellent buying opportunity.
Those hoping for a Christmas miracle were witness to an epic dumpfest this past weekend. The period from December 25 to January 4th is a slide episode 9 after bitstamp dead zone. Expect extreme market action in short bursts as traders run bear raids and short squeezes to inflict max pain on weak hands. A break below or above will usher in a flood of market volatility. Expect extreme volatility as traders return with fresh eyes and a clean balance sheet.
Hi Garry VCI want to tell you about a pivot we just made. You know we are not that interested in Bitcoin, but very positive about the Blockchain. Please tell me more. And we allow the trading of financial derivatives using the Blockchain.
So you no longer use Bitcoin? You were previously called BitMEX right? We never were a Bitcoin company. So what kind of Blockchain do you use for your derivatives, do you touch Bitcoin in any way? Touch Bitcoin, oh heavens no. We created our own Blockchain that uses Blockshares. It is proprietary to BlockMEX. Wow, you created your own Blockchain? Regulations are irrelevant with the Blockchain. We have not done a single trade on BlockMEX yet.
Our technology is meant for large financial institutions. We slide episode 9 after bitstamp going to revolutionise how they trade derivatives. I totally agree that legacy finance needs services like yours. What about your team? Finding good Blockchain engineers is getting harder and harder. Our team is top notch. They have been involved with the Blockchain since I really think you guys are onto something.
That sounds very reasonable. We are interested in leading your round. How do Chinese Bitcoin exchanges make money when they charge no fees to trade spot? In this post, I will conduct a thought experiment as to how I would monetise a spot business that slide episode 9 after bitstamp zero fees in Slide episode 9 after bitstamp. I have no concrete evidence to back up any of my claims other than deductive logic.
China accounts for the vast majority of all on-exchange Bitcoin trading. Slide episode 9 after bitstamp must therefore have a large balance of customer CNY and Bitcoin. I believe that Chinese exchanges act as shadow banks. When the product is free, you are the product. How much does it cost to operate the exchange? I have no hard data, but the big three generally have around staff.
Assume an average salary of 10, CNY per month. The yearly salary costs alone are CNY 18 million. Given the reported trading volumes, it is reasonable to assume that the big three could each possibly hold this amount of capital. Unfortunately only investing using demand deposits just barely covers salaries. If the exchange is to turn a profit, they must step out on the risk and maturity curve. Private companies cannot obtain credit from slide episode 9 after bitstamp.
Investors believe there is an implicit guarantee provided by the issuing bank. The belief is the government would not let WMPs fail because of the catastrophic losses retail investors would suffer. Therefore, in the few cases where it slide episode 9 after bitstamp a company would default on a WMP product, the banks have stepped up and rolled the debt. As the table shows, slide episode 9 after bitstamp more credit and maturity risk management is willing to take the more money they make.
Given there is no regulation as to how the exchange holds customer funds, management can invest in whatever they like to generate a positive NIM. Bitcoin trading has become a side show, and these entrepreneurs have created very profitable banking institutions. Because they have excess cash, they are able to pledge customer CNY to fund whatever assets will generate a positive risk adjusted NIM.
The Chinese Bitcoin exchange model will be copied in other emerging markets with broken credit intermediation and high nominal rates of interest.
If I was opening a spot Bitcoin exchange in India, this is the model I would choose. Private credit in India is hard to come by, and nominal rates are sky high.
The expectation of future weakness will become more acute. Ordinary citizens will search for any means to preserve their purchasing power. The Bitcoin meme is gaining ground in the financial media. Zerohedge mentions Bitcoin daily when talking about the Chinese financial markets. It is announced each day at 9: Global macro is providing so many positive catalysts for Bitcoin it is hard to keep them all straight. Argentina has descended into currency chaos.
The Android ecosystem is quite a bit bigger, but targeting it is rather pointless from a mining point of view because the hardware simply isnвt up to the job. Start now with our recommendations and expert advice. My idea is to allow you to submit new bots into this list and offer a high quality information- overview.