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There once was a trader who went by the handle Lord Ashdrake. He was a Romanian programmer, and was a prolific force during the nuclear Bitcoin winter in and Ashdrake completely blew up his account to the point where he could no longer trade Bitcoin. His folly was being unable to shift into a bull-market mindset. It meant to completely blow up your trading account by shorting Bitcoin.
Interactive Brokers was so afraid of being Ashdraked that they did not allow clients to go net short on the futures contract. There is a very simple reason why this future should usually trade at a premium. Consider the plight of the average traditional active asset manager. Global central banks crushed volatility in all asset classes in their relentless drive to create inflation.
Bonds, equities, ETFs, and asset-backed securities are all prominently featured on central-bank balance sheets. They realised en masse that it is better to own a passive market-tracking ETF than to entrust an expensive human to generate alpha. Even the so-called smart money became glorified beta chasers. However, Bitcoin and other digital currencies continued to be volatile, to have a negative correlation to risky assets, and to go up in value.
If I do nothing, I will certainly lose assets to passive ETFs with lower fees and better performance. However, I could swing the bat and import a call option with a negative correlation to my portfolio as a whole. If it goes to zero, who cares? I was going to underperform the index anyway. That could be the difference between receiving a doughnut as a bonus or getting PAID. That call option is going long on Bitcoin futures.
The specs will be net long Bitcoin futures contracts. The market makers who are delta neutral will sell futures and purchase Bitcoin. As I have said previously, market makers must receive a very high basis to compensate them for the USD margin they must post. Unfortunately for these market makers, unrealised USD gains from being long Bitcoin cannot be used to offset the unrealised USD losses on their short futures position. Therefore the basis must be attractive enough to compensate for the large balance sheet usage.
Never before in my markets career have I seen such attention paid to a new futures contract. We crypto traders should thank our lucky stars that these venerable exchanges decided to list futures contracts this year.
The volatility and attention they have brought exceed anything I could have imagined. Central banks saved commercial banks from certain death via aggressive money printing. However nine years after the GFC, banks and investors are desperate for volatility. Bitcoin, altcoins, ICOs, and all manner of digital tokens provide the long-lost market gyrations that made generations of traders wealthy.
I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Here is a similar analysis of Bitcoin Gold. Anyone who held Bitcoin on block , which occurred 24 October was allocated an identical amount of Bitcoin Gold. Some exchanges allowed customers to trade their Bitcoin Gold from this date based on customer balances at the time of the fork. However, the Bitcoin Gold blockchain itself did not appear to become usable until 14 November , 21 days after the snapshot point.
Although the Bitcoin Gold project team does not always appear to want to make this fact well known, , coins were created then allocated to the team members. This consists of the block reward for 8, blocks, which with a block reward of In the eyes of many, this seemingly unnecessary allocation is likely to damage the integrity of Bitcoin Gold. Bitcoin Cash, for example, did not have such an allocation.
As of 20 December , 2. This is likely related to the level of divestment from Bitcoin Gold, mainly because this 2. The average daily spend for the first time on Bitcoin Gold is falling slightly, compared to the initial period after the launch. In the last 10 days, the average daily spend for the first time was 44,, compared to around , in the first 10 days.
Bitcoin Gold spent for the first time since the split in daily millions compared to the BTG price Source: According to an announcement from the Bitcoin Gold team, the hacked wallet allowed the malicious entity to access funds sent to new Bitcoin Gold addresses provided by the wallet. Bitcoin was not affected as existing private keys were not compromised. It is not clear exactly what happened, but the Bitcoin Gold team claims that at least 80 BTG were stolen. Given the severity of this incident, the impact could have been far worse.
In particular, we would strongly advise you not to import your Bitcoin private key into these new fork token wallets without first spending the Bitcoin to a new output associated with a different private key after the token snapshot point, so that your Bitcoin is not at risk. The prices of crypto-related assets like Bitcoin have skyrocketed in recent months and many speculative investors understandably appear to want upside exposure to the space.
However, the risk of a downwards correction is high, in our view. In this piece, we look at a potentially lower-risk method of obtaining upside by presenting a selection of listed equities which have some exposure and businesses in other areas. For example, potentially another four-year cycle of weak prices could be driven by the Bitcoin halving schedule. Existing investors in the space may wish to take some profits but still retain some upside exposure, and new investors in the space may wish to obtain some upside exposure while mitigating some of the downside risks.
Here is a list of public companies with some business segments driven by crypto-related areas, which may benefit from further crypto price appreciation but which have other businesses that could mitigate the downside risks.
Before investing in any of these, you should obviously do more research on your own: A slightly more detailed look into the companies TSMC. This piece does not constitute investment advice. You should do your own research before deciding to make any investments. Building wealth is the easy part; securing and storing it for use by subsequent generations is difficult.
Half a millennium ago, a wealthy family needed a private army to secure its land and wealth. As civilisations evolved and we entered the age of the nation-state, society agreed that a centralised government should have a legal license to kill in order to secure the interests of property owners.
Stock and bond ownership relies on a central depository to affirm that you indeed are the owner. Government deed offices proclaim that a piece of land or real estate is yours. You are rich as long as the government allows you to be. The trappings of wealth can be taken at a whim. Should your actions upset a powerful state actor, your bank accounts will be frozen and your assets confiscated through the courts.
The recent Saudi corruption drive is case and point. This is more easily said than done, especially since the general population only complies because of generous government handouts. To beef up the government coffers, MBS did what all governments do: The most famous billionaire ensnared was Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, a world-famous investor with large stakes in some of the biggest global tech darlings.
After a few days cooped up in the Ritz, MBS presented his captives with a choice: Bitcoin presents a different way to secure wealth. Instead of trusting a government staffed with capricious humans, holders of Bitcoin trust cryptography and a decentralised network of profit-motivated miners. Bitcoin is less than a decade old, and is still very much an experiment. But if you possess a sum of wealth, it is prudent to diversify the networks used to secure it.
However, laws change to serve the growth and power of the government writing them. The government failures in Venezuela and Zimbabwe illustrate that in times of crisis Bitcoin can be used to grease the wheels of commerce.
Unfortunately for most, it takes a time of crisis to elucidate the fatal flaws of a particular economic system. Only then will people take concrete actions, which only moments ago were diametrically opposed to their belief system. Bitcoin is at a watershed moment. Prior to this contract, derivatives traders were required to own Bitcoin in order to post margin on futures trading platforms such as BitMEX.
Due to the different client bases that BitMEX retail and the CME professional investors serve, the price discrepancies between two futures contracts with the same underlying will present enormous opportunities to generate arbitrage profits. This guide will walk traders through how to execute such trades. The above chart shows the XBT value of each contract. The CME contract has a fixed value in Bitcoin no matter the spot price. Technically speaking, the BitMEX multiplier is negative, even though in the graph uses a positive multiplier for a better visualisation.
This means that the value in Bitcoin declines faster as the price falls, and increases slower as the price rises. That is negative gamma, or negative convexity. The above chart shows the USD value of each contract.
To achieve a similar notional on BitMEX requires 40, contracts. When I touch on spread trades later, the much larger CME notional means that only traders with large amounts of capital can put on these trades.
This limiting factor, along with the lower leverage offered by the CME, means that most retail traders will be unable to trade the CME product. The first major difference between the two contracts is the underlying index. Traders who hold either contract to expiry will need to familiarise themselves with each index, and at a minimum be able to trade on all four exchanges.
However, BitMEX expires at Given that the expiry time differs by only three to four hours, there is little benefit to adjust the time value when computing relative basis. Bitcoin is a call option. The more volatile it is, the more valuable the option.